ANOMALI BANDWAGON EFFECT DAN MOMENTUM PARTAI POLITIK MERAIH SUARA PADA PEMILU 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31848/jkri.v1i2.3400Kata Kunci:
election, political parties, survey, journalism, impactAbstrak
The 2024 presidential and legislative elections show anomalies in the vote results. Prabowo Subianto won the Presidential seat for the 2024-2029 period with a majority vote that dominated 36 provinces out of 38 provinces in Indonesia, so it did not have a significant impact on his political party, namely Gerindra obtained a majority of legislative seats, even dropping to third place compared to the 2019 election which was in second place. The personal impression of the President-elect did not have any impact even though the support from survey institutions and various media platforms became a looking-glass effect for the blessings of electoral politics for the Gerindra party. The electoral impact obtained by other parties from those who supported and did not support the President, increased significantly by double digits from the previous election. The article in this study uses an exploratory qualitative method with a case type, where the bandwagon effect of the Presidential election supported by horse-race journalism contributes or does not contribute to political parties' vote acquisition in understanding the natural social context phenomenon on political party relations, elections, and their subsequent impacts. The media and survey institutions with the various channels and platforms they use play a key role in post-reform polls with the results becoming a reference for the public to see the level of electability of presidential and legislative candidates, especially for young people as the majority of voters who reach 55% of the voting population. In fact, with various methods, they can increase vote acquisition, change election results through their multiple skills, and help their candidates defeat their competitors so that in this context survey institutions become business entities with high pay rates.
Referensi
Buku
Amal, I. (2012). Transformasi Sistem‐sistem Kepartaian Eropa Barat, Teori‐Teori Mutakhir Partai Politik, Yogyakarta: Tiara Wacana.
Asshiddiqie, Jimly. (2007). Pokok-pokok Hukum Tata Negara Indonesia. Jakarta: BIP. Gramedia.
Bartels, L. M. (1988). Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Creswell, J. W. & Cresswel, J.D. 2018. Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches 5th Eds. California: Sage Publications, Inc.
Duverger, M. (1959). Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in Modern State. London: Wiley.
Fatah, E.S. (1994). Demokrasi di Indonesia. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.
Geertz, C. (1960). The Religion of Java. USA: University of Chicago Press.
Haris, S. (2014) Partai, Pemilu dan Parlemen Era Reformasi. Jakarta: Yayasan Obor.
Meyer, T. (2012). Peran Partai Politik dalam Sebuah Demokrasi: Sembilan Tesis. Jakarta: Friederich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Mietzner, M. (2013). Money, Power, and Ideology: Political Parties in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia. Singapore: NUS Press.
Mutz, D. C. (1998). Impersonal influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Nainggolan, B. dan Y. Wahyu (editor). (2016). Kompaspedia: Partai Politik 1999-2019 –Konsentrasi & Dekonsentrasi Kuasa. Jakarta: Litbang KOMPAS Gramedia.
Neuman, W. et.al, (2000). Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approach, 6th Edition. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.
Patten, M. L. & Newhart, M. (2018). Understanding Research Methods. An Overview and Essentials. 10th Eds. New York: Routledge-Taylor & Francis.
Robison, R. dan V. Hadiz (2004). Reorganizing Power in Indonesia: The Politics of Oligarchy in an Age of Markets. London: Routledge Curzon.
Schattschneider, E.E. (1942). Party Government. New York: Rinehart and Company.
Tomsa, D. (2008). Party Politics and Democratization in Indonesia: Golkar in the post-Suharto era. London: Routledge.
Tomsa, D. dan A. Ufen. (2013). Party Politics in Southeast Asia Clientelism and Electoral Competition in Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippine. New York: Routledge.
Buku Kumpulan Artikel
Khrennikov, A. (2020). Social Laser Model for the Bandwagon Effect Generation of Coherent Information Waves. Entropy, 22(5), 559. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22050559
Slater, Dan. (2004). “Indonesia’s Accountability Trap: Party Cartels and Presidential Power after Democratic Transition”. https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstreams/477f71cf-d22b-40f1-bf10-ea4c29673bec/download
Gunther, R. and L. Diamond. (2003). Species of Political party: a New Typology. Party Politics, vol.9 No. 22. London: Sage Publications.
Artikel dalam Buku Kumpulan Artikel
Haramain, A. M. dan Nurhuda, M. F. (2000). Mengawal transisi: Refleksi atas pemantauan Pemilu 1999. Jakarta: kerjasama UNDP, PB PMII dan JAMPPI.
Toff, Benjamin. (2020). 24 Horse-Race and Game-Framed Journalism’s Effects on Turnout, Vote Choice, and Attitudes Toward Politics. Oxford Handbooks, 478-492. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190860806.013.24.
Artikel dalam Jurnal/Majalah
D. Anckar and C. Anckar. (2000). “Democracies without parties,” in Comparative Political Studies 33. (2): 225-247. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414000033002003
Hinich, M. J. (1981).voting as an act of contribution. Public Choice 36, 135-140. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00163775
Lanoue, D. J., & Bowler, S. (1998). Picking the winners: Perceptions of party viability and their impact on voting behavior. Social Science Quarterly, 79, 361–377. https://www.jstor.org/stable/i40108880
Marsh, C. (1985). Back on the bandwagon: The effect of opinion polls on public opinion. British Journal of Political Science, 15, 51–74. doi: 10.1017/S0007123400004063
McGinnis, P.J. (2004). Social Theory at HBS: McGinnis’ Two Fos. https://www.harbus.org/post/social-theory-at-hbs-mcginnis-two-fos-1
Morton, R. B. & Ou. Kai. (2015). What motivates bandwagon behavior: Altruism or a desire to win? European Journal of Political Economy. Elsevier 40 (PB), 224-241. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.04.009
Nadeau, R., Cloutier, E., & Guay, J. H. (1993). New evidence about the existence of a bandwagon effect in the opinion formation process. International Political Science Review, 14(2), 203–213. doi: 10.1177/019251219301400204
Pitria, E. Utari, D. Marseta, Y. Sari, M. T. & Pangestu, R. A. (2023). Peran Pemilih Pemula dalam Pemilu 2024. KREATIF: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Nusantara, 3(3), 210-218. https://doi.org/10.55606/kreatif.v3i3.2105
Robinson, C. E. (1937). Recent developments in the straw poll field: Part 2. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1, 42–52. doi: 10.1086/265122
Sabarudin, D. (2023). Ideologi Kebangsaan, Identitas Politik dan Ekonomi Calon Presiden Prabowo Subianto dalam Program Best Results Fast 2024-2029. JKRI, Jurnal Kebangsaan Republik Indonesia, Vol.1, no.1, 30-43. ISSN: 3032-3096.
Schmitt-Beck, R. (1996). Mass media, the electorate, and the bandwagon: A study of communication effects on vote choice in Germany. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 8, 266–291. doi: 10.1093/ijpor/8.3.266
Simon, H. A. (1954). Bandwagon and underdog effects and the possibility of election predictions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 18, 245–253. doi: 10.1086/266513
Dokumen Resmi
Undang-Undang Dasar Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 1945. Kemenkumham: JDIH.
Undang-undang Republik Indonesia Nomor 7 tentang Pemilihan Umum. 2017. Jakarta: KPU.
Skripsi, Tesis, Disertasi dan Laporan Penelitian
Ambardi, K. (2008). The making of the Indonesian multiparty system: A cartelized party system and its origin (Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University). Ohio State University and Dissertations Archive.
Makalah Seminar, Lokakarya, Penataran
Proceedings of the 55th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICCS. (2022). https://hdl.handle.net/10125/79731 - 978-0-9981331-5-7.







